Home-Building Recovery Will Start This Year And Active Adults Will Lead The Way
Central Florida homebuilders could see the start of a dramatic recovery as early as this summer, and retirement-aged adults will lead the way.
Despite seemingly endless news cycles devoted to our national economic ailments, we forget the enormous size and scope of the fabled “baby boom” generation.
I don’t mean to discount our national economic cycle. But we shouldn’t discount our active adults either. Most of them are pretty smart, after all, and many of them saw this coming.
As a real estate developer who focuses on superior lifestyles for active adults at Providence Golf and Country Club community in the Loughman-Davenport area of Polk County and Wyndham Lakes Estates in south Orlando, I’m very familiar with the lifestyle preferences, spending habits and financial acumen most retirement-aged adults possess.
We anticipate the net in-migration of active adults will increase substantially starting this summer, and we expect the active adult market will lead a major recovery of the home building industry in Florida---especially Central Florida---that will hit its stride in 2010.
The recovery will be more measured than the recent housing boom, and that’s a good thing. We won’t see a return to 2005 levels of sales and construction, but we won’t see the subsequent ballooning of materials costs, pricing, taxes, insurance and accompanying expenses either.
What we will see is a return to strong, sustainable levels of activity the Central Florida region is known for.
Economic analysts at ABD Development Company anticipate a rebound in the U.S. securities markets resulting from economic stimulus programs the new presidential administration has already announced.
The securities markets---stocks and bonds---are usually referred to as ‘leading indicators’ of economic health. In this case, they are a sign of better times to come.
The President’s emphasis on tax cuts for the middle class are particularly promising.
Once our immediate crisis begins to wane, lower interest rates and exceptional values that are evident in almost every Florida market will generate sustainable growth rates led by the active adult segment.
Typically, when an economic cycle starts to improve, it gathers steam rapidly. Adults who may have postponed their retirement a year or two will join adults who are just now reaching retirement age to produce what builders and developers call ‘pent-up demand.’
As much as we might worry about the national economy, the baby boom generation represents enormous financial depth. Active adults are still retiring---you can’t stop the clock---and for a significant proportion of them, Florida’s warm climate and relatively affordable lifestyle opportunities are just the ticket.
Certainly baby boomers have more opportunities than ever before, and for some, North Carolina, Arizona, and other parts of the country are appealing. But Florida’s century-old heritage as a retirement mecca is still a compelling factor we sometimes overlook in our spates of hand-wringing.
For Florida homebuilders, the market cycle has been particularly painful. But builders and developers who took measures to prepare for the inevitable market slowdown are surviving, if not thriving.
Before we know it---before the end of 2009, to be sure---the housing market will come back wiser, healthier, and more sustainable than before.
Builders and developers are looking forward to it. But the biggest beneficiaries are home buyers.
Providence Golf and Country Club community will accommodate some 4,800 new homes when the community is completed in 2018. Some 500 new homes have been sold at Providence and 1,700 new homes are planned in 20 different neighborhoods in the first phase of the development.
For More Information Contact:
David Kohn, President ABD Development Company, 407-370-6400
