Full Economic Recovery Will Take Two to Three more Years in Central Florida

By George Livingston, CIPS

(Ed. note: George Livingston is chairman emeritus of NAI Realvest in Maitland and a 30-year veteran real estate and investment analyst.)

Economic recovery in the Orlando area and throughout Florida is slowly gaining momentum and might take another two to three more years. The momentum will likely pick up speed in 2014 and 2015.

Florida’s and Orlando’s Gross Production, a measure of economic activity, is expanding and should improve into 2015. Consumption is positive. Governments are spending on infrastructure, and that’s good strategy.

Exports remain strong and are improving. But private and business investments are lagging, largely due to uncertainty at home and abroad.

Florida’s housing market is improving steadily, and Orlando’s housing market is helping to lead the growth, but year-over-year numbers are still well below past market peaks.

Foreign buyers are absorbing a large part of the for sale inventory.

Commercial real estate is improving across the board---apartments, senior housing, retail, warehousing, office, and hotel sectors are advancing in that order.

Occupancies are up and rent rates are flat to increasing.

Unemployment and underemployment continues to be a problem, and we may not see much recovery in the jobs market until 2013 or later. Government employment is likewise under pressure.

Population growth--- positive this year---continues to play a significant role in Florida’s economic health, especially in Orlando.

Population growth is expected to improve into 2015, and it is a significant driver of growth in the Central Florida region and throughout the state.

Entertainment, the conventions and tourism trade, and technology, logistics and medical clusters continue to accelerate business growth in Central Florida.

We’re seeing serious expansion in the entertainment, conventions, and vacation sector.

Orlando’s central location and our access to air, roads, rail, and close-by ports are significant growth factors.

The outlook for Orlando continues to improve, but at a moderate pace.